Are we almost out of phosphate?

Almost all of the phosphate rock mined on this planet goes toward making fertilizer. Every cell in both plants and animals requires phosphorus to sustain itself. There is no substitute for phosphorus in nature.

Lately, there have been several alarming reports in the press suggesting the world phosphate rock supply has peaked – implying that a fertilizer shortage might be just over the horizon.

Recently updated estimates claim the earth has at least 300 years of known phosphate rock reserves, recoverable with current technology, as well as 1,400 years of phosphate rock resources that might be recoverable with some future technology, according to the International Plant Nutrition Institute (IPNI), Norcross, Ga.

That said, we use a lot of phosphate. One estimate puts the figure at an equivalent of 67 pounds of phosphate rock per person per year. In terms of simple phosphorus, that is about nine pounds per year…or 0.4 ounces per day.

“There may be a scarcity of many earth minerals some day, but the phosphorus supply will not be a concern for hundreds of years,” said Dr. Robert Mikkelsen, Western North America director for IPNI. He also noted that “responsible stewardship” and good P management will extend the resource.

“There is substantial room for improvement in efficiency,” Mikkelsen said. Cutting losses from erosion or river discharge are two key areas. Those two areas, alone, roughly balance the quantity of phosphorus that is mined, according to Mikkelsen.